Tech Layoffs, RTO and Salary Data: The November 2026 Refresh
The counter-intuitive November picture is that announced cuts across all sectors are down, while technology cuts are up: through September, employers announced 573,195 cuts, down 39% from the first nine months of 2025, but the technology sector recorded 165,925 announced cuts, up 54%. Those figures come from different scopes and neither tells an individual whether their job is safe. For a decision this quarter, separate the broad trend from the conditions in your industry, role and prospective employer.
The headline is split, not simple
The 573,195 figure is Challenger’s total of announced cuts across sectors through September 2026. The year-over-year comparison is 946,426 announced cuts in the first nine months of 2025. But the all-sector decline is not the same as the decline outside government: excluding the Government sector, the figures are 550,185 versus 646,671, down 15%. That is a substantially smaller decrease than the 39% headline.
Technology moved in the other direction. Challenger counted 165,925 technology-sector cuts through September, up 54% from 107,878 through September 2025. Technology accounted for 29% of all 2026 announced cuts, more than any other industry. These are employer-announced plans, not a count of people who have completed a separation.
The sources also use different scopes and methods. Layoffs.fyi reports 135,913 tech employees laid off at 336 tech companies in its 2026 year block, a year-to-date count when we read the page on November 1, 2026. Challenger reports 165,925 technology-sector cuts through September. These are different scopes, not two pieces to combine or reconcile.
Action: Use the 39% decline as broad context, but weigh the 54% technology-sector increase and your employer’s own signals more heavily when assessing a tech role.
Layoff counts: five years and nine months
Layoffs.fyi publishes year blocks for technology layoffs. Its 2026 block is a year-to-date count at the time we read the page (November 1, 2026), not a full-year total.
| Year | Tech employees laid off | Tech companies |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 165,269 | 1,064 |
| 2023 | 265,660 | 1,194 |
| 2024 | 152,922 | 551 |
| 2025 | 122,606 | 278 |
| 2026 (partial, as of Nov. 1) | 135,913 | 336 |
Challenger’s all-sector monthly figures through September are Jan 108,435; Feb 48,307; Mar 60,620; Apr 83,387; May 97,006; Jun 45,849; Jul 33,429; Aug 52,881; and Sep 43,281. The monthly arithmetic sums to 573,195. The second-quarter total was 226,242; the third-quarter total was 129,591.
| Challenger month, 2026 | Announced cuts |
|---|---|
| January | 108,435 |
| February | 48,307 |
| March | 60,620 |
| April | 83,387 |
| May | 97,006 |
| June | 45,849 |
| July | 33,429 |
| August | 52,881 |
| September | 43,281 |
| January–September total | 573,195 |
September’s 43,281 announced cuts were down 18% from August and down 20% from September 2025. It was the lowest September total since 2022, when 29,989 cuts were recorded. “Lowest since 2022” does not mean lowest ever; September 2026 was higher than September 2022.
The September technology-sector count, however, rose to 10,799 from 6,103 in August, a 77% increase. The monthly total and the technology-sector count tell different parts of the story, so neither should stand in for the other.
Action: Compare your employer’s sector and recent announcements with the relevant table, rather than treating a partial-year tracker total as a personal risk forecast.
Announcements, named events and hiring plans
The InformationWeek 2026 tech layoff tracker, updated October 30, records a varied set of announcements: Dropbox said it would cut 9% of its workforce; eBay, 9%; Netflix, 6%; and Microsoft announced 4,800 cuts. Uber announced 3,300 cuts out of 34,000 global employees. Cisco announced 4,000 role cuts while reporting record quarterly revenue of $15.8 billion. These examples show why a company’s headline revenue or size alone does not settle what a particular role faces.
The tracker also reports that Microsoft’s chief people officer said: “The roles eliminated today are not being replaced by AI. At the same time, what is true is that AI is changing how work gets done.” Etsy’s CEO said the company’s cuts were not driven by AI. Those statements are important counterpoints to treating layoffs as evidence that AI caused particular cuts.
Challenger counts AI as the leading cited reason for cuts year to date: 120,136 announced cuts, about 21% of all cuts. In September alone, AI was the fifth-most-cited reason, with 3,961 cuts, about 9% of that month’s total. These are employer-cited reasons, not an independent finding of cause.
Hiring plans present a separate signal. Employers announced 210,612 hiring plans year to date, up 3% from 204,939. September’s 90,787 announced plans were down 23% from September 2025 and were the lowest September total since 2011. Planned hiring is not a promise of a particular opening or offer.
Action: In interviews, ask about the specific team’s approved hiring plan, recent role changes and how the job’s responsibilities are evolving; don’t infer cause from a company-wide announcement.
AI concern is not the same as measured displacement
In a Gallup survey conducted August 3–24, 2026, 27% of U.S. workers said they worry technology could soon make their jobs obsolete, a new high. That compares with 13% in 2017 and 20% last year. Among workers ages 18–44, the share was 34%, compared with 19% among those 45 and older. Gallup’s survey included 1,200 adults and reports a margin of error of 4 points for all adults and 6 points for employed adults. Gallup also says AI’s overall effect on U.S. employment remains modest; it notes that the latest jobs report showed solid hiring and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate. That 4.1% is reported here only as Gallup’s description of the latest jobs report.
Concern about the future is higher in other surveys too. In Bentley University-Gallup’s July 2026 report, 79% of Americans said AI will reduce the number of U.S. jobs over the next ten years, up from 73% in 2025. Pew’s U.S. survey found 71% of adults thought AI would lead to fewer U.S. jobs over the next two decades, while 5% said it would lead to more; the 71% figure was up from 64% in 2024.
Those expectations should not be mistaken for a count of current job losses. Gallup Workplace’s panel, with about 30,000 worker observations from 2023 through the first quarter of 2026, found roughly 19% of workers said their job was somewhat or very likely to be eliminated by AI as of Q1 2026. The same source reports acute concern of 6.3% among frequent AI users and 3.09% among infrequent users; those figures are quoted as published, not reconciled.
Pew’s global report covered 42,151 people across 36 countries. It says that in “34 of 37 countries” surveyed, people tended to believe AI would lead to fewer jobs rather than more. The report’s description of 36 countries and its “34 of 37 countries” wording are inconsistent, so the country count should not be silently harmonized.
Action: Treat survey concern as a reason to ask how a role may change, not as proof that your job or a specific employer’s jobs are being eliminated.
Return-to-office: compare the city, not just the headline
For the week ending October 21, 2026, Kastle’s Back to Work Barometer reported a 56.1% national 10-city average. Class A+ buildings averaged 76.7%. The weekly city averages show substantial variation:
| City | Weekly average | Week-over-week change |
|---|---|---|
| Austin | 77.3% | +6.5 |
| New York City | 69.9% | +3.6 |
| Dallas | 64.7% | −1.0 |
| Houston | 58.7% | +0.6 |
| Chicago | 56.2% | unchanged |
| Washington, D.C. | 52.1% | +0.7 |
| San Francisco | 47.6% | +0.4 |
| Los Angeles | 46.6% | −0.9 |
| San Jose | 46.0% | −0.2 |
| Philadelphia | 42.3% | +0.6 |
The peak day was Tuesday, October 20: 66.1% nationally and 92.3% for Class A+ buildings. Kastle’s index uses anonymized keycard, fob and app entry data from over 300,000 users across 3,400 buildings in ten cities. It counts each person’s first entry per day and indexes activity to a three-week February 2020 baseline. Kastle describes this as administrative rather than sample data, so it has “no margin of error”; it also says the ten metros are “not a national statistical sample.”
An occupancy index does not tell you whether a specific employer requires office attendance, how many days an offer expects, or whether your team follows the broader city pattern. No figure here establishes the prevalence of RTO mandates.
Action: Before accepting a hybrid or on-site offer, get the expected in-office days, location and policy-change terms in writing; use the city index only as context.
Salary data: use the right comparison
Levels.fyi’s Software Engineer Salary page, marked “Updated Nov 1, 2026,” is based on 47,544 reported salaries. For U.S. software engineers, it lists median total compensation of $199,500, with a 25th percentile of $140K, a 75th percentile of $285K and a 90th percentile of $393K. Median base salary is $162,000 and average total compensation is $224,652. Total compensation includes base salary, the yearly value of stock and bonus. These are self-reported figures with outliers removed.
The page also reports a $300,000 median for the San Francisco Bay Area and lists Anthropic at a median $882,500 as its highest-paying company. Neither figure is a general market benchmark: the U.S. median applies to the page’s software-engineer data, while the company figure is a company-specific median. Do not extend either number to other roles, levels, locations or employers.
The Robert Half 2027 Salary Guide projects starting salaries for more than 425 roles across seven professional fields. It says 72% of employers are modestly increasing compensation budgets and 57% are offering salaries above their planned range; among those employers, 87% cite the need to secure candidates with specialized skills. Its summary says projected starting salary growth has moderated. These figures describe employer plans and guide projections, not a guaranteed raise or a measured year-over-year pay-growth rate.
For a raise conversation, compare like with like: role, level, location and compensation components. The software-engineer distribution can provide a negotiating reference only if your situation fits its scope; Robert Half’s figures can frame the potential value of specialized skills, but do not establish your individual market rate.
Action: Build your raise case from comparable role-and-location evidence, and separate base pay from stock and bonus before comparing offers.
What these numbers can and cannot tell you
The following five source families answer different questions. Their counts, survey results and indexes are not interchangeable.
| Source | What it counts | Scope | What it cannot tell you | Decision it informs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Layoffs.fyi | Tech layoff year blocks | Tech companies; 2026 partial | All-sector cuts or an all-time cumulative total | Tech-sector context |
| Challenger report | Announced cuts and employer-cited reasons | All sectors, with industry detail | Completed separations or proven cause | Broad trend and cited reasons |
| InformationWeek tracker | Named company announcements | Selected tech-company events | Overall prevalence or role-level patterns | Questions about a named employer |
| Kastle Barometer | First daily building entries | Ten-city building index | Mandate prevalence or a national statistical estimate | Local office-attendance context |
| Levels.fyi and Robert Half | Reported SWE compensation and projected starting salaries | Different pay measures and populations | Your exact offer value or pay growth | Pay comparison and negotiation |
There is no current BLS payroll, JOLTS or unemployment data in this refresh because the BLS fetch was blocked. No source here counts how many companies require particular office days. The available layoff data cannot establish that AI caused cuts: Challenger reports employer-cited reasons, while the Microsoft and Etsy statements above caution against that inference. The sources also do not provide a cumulative all-time layoff total, year-over-year occupancy change, year-over-year pay-growth rate, severance figures, time-to-land figures or rehire rates. Beyond Oracle’s reported 17% share of affected roles being software developers, there is no role-level layoff breakdown in this fact set.
Action: Use this refresh to frame questions and comparisons, not to estimate an individual layoff probability, mandate prevalence or guaranteed compensation.
How This Guide Was Built
This refresh uses source material read on 2026-11-01. The linked sources are Layoffs.fyi, the Challenger September 2026 report, InformationWeek’s 2026 tech tracker, Kastle’s Barometer, Gallup’s reports on technology and job-obsolescence fears, American views of AI and AI use and worker reassurance, Pew Research Center’s global AI survey and U.S. young-adult survey, Levels.fyi and Robert Half.
Figures are presented as reported in those sources; tracker scopes are kept separate rather than blended. Where a source’s description is inconsistent, as with Pew’s “36 countries” and “34 of 37 countries,” the inconsistency is noted rather than resolved by guesswork. Dice’s Tech Salary Report and trueup.io were unreachable and are not cited. BLS data were unavailable because bls.gov blocked the fetch.
Action: When applying a figure to your own decision, follow its linked source and check that its scope matches your role, location and question.
FAQ
Are layoffs falling or rising?
Both descriptions fit different scopes. Challenger’s all-sector announced cuts through September were down 39% year over year, or down 15% excluding Government; technology-sector cuts were up 54%. Layoffs.fyi’s partial 2026 tech total is a separate tracker count.
Does the AI-cited total show that AI caused 120,136 layoffs?
No. Challenger reports 120,136 year-to-date announced cuts with AI cited as a reason, about 21% of all cuts. It was the leading cited reason year to date, but AI ranked fifth in September with 3,961 cuts, about 9% of the month. The report records employer-cited reasons, not independent proof of cause.
If workers fear AI job losses, does that mean displacement is already widespread?
The measures are not equivalent. Gallup found 27% of workers worry technology could soon make their jobs obsolete, compared with 13% in 2017. Separately, its workplace panel reports roughly 19% said their job was somewhat or very likely to be eliminated by AI as of Q1 2026. Gallup describes AI’s overall effect on U.S. employment as modest.
Which AI jobs forecast should I use: 79%, or 71%?
Neither is a measure of current job losses. Bentley University-Gallup found 79% expected AI to reduce U.S. jobs over the next ten years. Pew found 71% expected fewer jobs over the next two decades, and 5% expected more. The surveys ask different questions over different time horizons.
Can I use $199,500 as the going salary for my job?
Only if you are making a comparison within the scope of the Levels.fyi U.S. software-engineer data. Its $199,500 figure is median total compensation based on 47,544 reported salaries; it is not a general median for all roles, levels or locations.
Does the Kastle 56.1% figure mean most employers require office attendance?
No. It is a 10-city office-entry index for the week ending October 21, not a count of employer mandates. Kastle explicitly says those metros are “not a national statistical sample.”
Action: Keep your decision anchored to the specific denominator, timeframe and population behind the figure you cite.
The Bottom Line
- Changing jobs: Treat the 54% increase in technology-sector cuts as a reason to scrutinize employer and team stability, not as a forecast for your individual role. Ask about approved hiring plans and recent changes; Challenger’s all-sector decline of 39% does not erase the tech-sector increase.
- Asking for a raise: Use the Levels.fyi $199,500 median total compensation only if you are comparing against its U.S. software-engineer data. For other roles, use role-relevant evidence; Robert Half reports that 72% of employers are modestly increasing compensation budgets and 57% are offering above planned ranges, often to secure specialized skills.
- Accepting a hybrid or on-site offer: The Kastle 56.1% national 10-city average is context, not a mandate statistic. Get the office schedule and policy expectations directly from the employer before you accept.
Action: Make the choice using the figure that matches your role, location and decision—not the most attention-grabbing headline.
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